What's changed?
The recycling fee increases annually by 10-20%, but a key change occurred back in late 2025. Now, the calculation takes into account not only engine displacement but also its power. Preferential conditions for private imports only apply to cars up to 160 hp, while anything more powerful automatically falls under commercial (significantly higher) rates.
How will this affect prices?
Experts agree: price increases are inevitable.
— Cars without localization in Russia will be the first to increase in price.
— Even Russian and highly localized models could increase by 5-10%.
— Premium segment vehicles, electric vehicles, hybrids, and cars with more than 160 hp risk increasing in price by up to 20%.
Imports and Shortages
Due to the new rules, the market may lose thousands of powerful cars previously imported through parallel imports. China has already reduced the supply of models with engines over 160 hp, and the wait for cars with less powerful engines could stretch out for months, further driving up prices.
What will happen to the used car market?
The price increase will primarily affect used cars imported from abroad—mostly premium models 3-5 years old. However, the shortage of reliable cars will gradually push up the mass market as well. Forecasts point to a 5-10% increase, and up to 15% for popular European models.
An interesting point: at the end of 2025, used car prices temporarily declined due to the rush to buy new cars. However, analysts believe this effect will be short-lived.
